5 Stocks to Watch This Week (NCLH, RBLX, RL, SAM, Z)

November 8, 2022

Another week packed with earnings opportunities!

Here are some names that are poppin' and droppin' this week:

  • Travel demand is strong and pent-up cruise demand leads the way. Consumer mentions of booking a cruise have increased +146% YoY, outperforming other forms of travel experience trends tracked.
  • Norwegian Cruise Line, which sets sail in the Caribbean, Bermuda, Alaska, Hawaii and Europe, is significantly outperforming peers RCL and CCL. Mentions of booking a cruise with NCLH are building in the current quarter: +105% YoY and +9% QoQ.
  • Brand happiness remains high (+6% QoQ) as consumers praise superior dining experiences and entertainment options.
  • Norwegian is bolstered by increasing consumer demand to get out of the country, especially to European destinations. International travel mentions have risen by +55% YoY.
  • Market expectations are rising for NCLH. Shares are trading nearly +30% higher this month, suggesting a high bar. LikeFolio's Earnings score is officially neutral, with cautiously bullish undertones.
Roblox (RBLX)
  • A month ago we praised Roblox for outperforming market expectationsData looked solid and gameplay mentions were logging significant YoY growth. Overall consumer buzz increased +14% YoY in the third quarter.
  • The company reported that daily active users increased +23% YoY, driving hours engaged higher. While this number was high, it was a drop from August numbers, attributed to its younger audience returning to school.
  • This fade is continuing – Roblox mentions are falling sharply in 22Q4: -19% YoY. This could be a red flag when it comes to company guidance.
  • While we think numbers in the current quarter will be strong, forward projections could ding the market reaction.
Ralph Lauren (RL)
  • Ralph Lauren is getting its groove back with consumers. Consumer demand is rising – +35% higher vs. last year – and sentiment levels have increased by nearly +10% in the same time frame.
  • Improvements are most notable among the retailer’s younger audience. RL is benefitting from fashion cycles favoring 90’s trends and from partnerships in the “Metaverse” with names like Fortnite.
  • Ralph Lauren’s renewed brand image supports a higher price point. Across the board, LikeFolio has noted that “luxury brands” are faring better vs. other brands due to their higher-earning consumer being more insulated from the pains of inflation.
  • RL shares are trading -25% lower YoY while demand and sentiment recover, presenting a bullish divergence opportunity. 
Boston Beer Co. (SAM)
  • Analysts are keeping a close eye on SAMtouting its “meaningful growth profile” and its potential as a defensive play in a volatile market environment.
  • LikeFolio data reveals continued growth in its Twisted Tea and craft-beer-esq Dogfish Head beer brand. On the flip side, its namesake Sam Adams beer and Truly hard seltzer are recording relative consumer weakness.
  • The softness of SAM’s larger brands is weighing on comprehensive company demand. Across the board, consumer mentions of purchasing or drinking a Boston Beer Co. bevvy are pacing -15% lower YoY, worsening from -4% in 22Q3.
  • SAM’s next earnings event isn’t expected until mid-January, but current data doesn’t support a bullish bet at the moment. We’ll be tracking through the end of quarter for updates.
Zillow (Z)
  • The real estate market remains in cool-down mode. Mortgage rates slipped slightly for the first time in two months (7.16% to 7.06%) but remain significantly higher vs. rates available at the beginning of the year.
  • The pressure of high rates is holding down potential buyers. Mortgage applications remain -85% lower YoY. LikeFolio trends confirm weakness on the buy side, with moving mentions dropping by double digits YoY while interest rate concerns rocket.
  • Last week Zillow shares surged following a better-than-expected third quarter report. However, the company noted the 2023 market looks “challenged.”
  • LikeFolio data confirms weakness for Zillow ahead. Consumer mentions of using Zillow’s platform to search for a home have dropped off severely, trending -18% lower QoQ and -35% lower YoY. We’re avoiding this name for now.

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