5 Stocks to Watch This Week (NCLH, RBLX, RL, SAM, Z)
November 8, 2022
Another week packed with earnings opportunities!
Here are some names that are poppin' and droppin' this week:
Travel demand is strong and pent-up cruise demand leads the way. Consumer mentions of booking a cruise have increased +146% YoY, outperforming other forms of travel experience trends tracked.
Norwegian Cruise Line, which sets sail in the Caribbean, Bermuda, Alaska, Hawaii and Europe, is significantly outperforming peers RCL and CCL. Mentions of booking a cruise with NCLH are building in the current quarter: +105% YoY and +9% QoQ.
The company reported that daily active users increased +23% YoY, driving hours engaged higher. While this number was high, it was a drop from August numbers, attributed to its younger audience returning to school.
This fade is continuing – Roblox mentions are falling sharply in 22Q4: -19% YoY. This could be a red flag when it comes to company guidance.
While we think numbers in the current quarter will be strong, forward projections could ding the market reaction.
Ralph Lauren (RL)
Ralph Lauren is getting its groove back with consumers. Consumer demand is rising – +35% higher vs. last year – and sentiment levels have increased by nearly +10% in the same time frame.
Improvements are most notable among the retailer’s younger audience. RL is benefitting from fashion cycles favoring 90’s trends and from partnerships in the “Metaverse” with names like Fortnite.
Ralph Lauren’s renewed brand image supports a higher price point. Across the board, LikeFolio has noted that “luxury brands” are faring better vs. other brands due to their higher-earning consumer being more insulated from the pains of inflation.
RL shares are trading -25% lower YoY while demand and sentiment recover, presenting a bullish divergence opportunity.
Boston Beer Co. (SAM)
Analysts are keeping a close eye on SAM, touting its “meaningful growth profile” and its potential as a defensive play in a volatile market environment.
LikeFolio data reveals continued growth in its Twisted Tea and craft-beer-esq Dogfish Head beer brand. On the flip side, its namesake Sam Adams beer and Truly hard seltzer are recording relative consumer weakness.
The softness of SAM’s larger brands is weighing on comprehensive company demand. Across the board, consumer mentions of purchasing or drinking a Boston Beer Co. bevvy are pacing -15% lower YoY, worsening from -4% in 22Q3.
SAM’s next earnings event isn’t expected until mid-January, but current data doesn’t support a bullish bet at the moment. We’ll be tracking through the end of quarter for updates.
The real estate market remains in cool-down mode. Mortgage rates slipped slightly for the first time in two months (7.16% to 7.06%) but remain significantly higher vs. rates available at the beginning of the year.
The pressure of high rates is holding down potential buyers. Mortgage applications remain -85% lower YoY. LikeFolio trends confirm weakness on the buy side, with moving mentions dropping by double digits YoY while interest rate concerns rocket.
Last week Zillow shares surged following a better-than-expected third quarter report. However, the company noted the 2023 market looks “challenged.”
LikeFolio data confirms weakness for Zillow ahead. Consumer mentions of using Zillow’s platform to search for a home have dropped off severely, trending -18% lower QoQ and -35% lower YoY. We’re avoiding this name for now.