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5 Stocks to Watch This Week (UBER, ABNB, ROKU, DASH, COIN)

October 31, 2022

Happy Halloween! 🎃

Another THRILLING earnings week ahead! 

Here are some names LikeFolio has on our radar...

Uber (UBER)

  • LikeFolio's data for Uber is officially neutral heading into earnings, mainly weighed down by its underperforming food delivery portfolio including Uber Eats and Postmates.
  • Uber Eats and Postmates recorded double-digit YoY declines in demand. In contrast, DoorDash demand remained just above prior year levels and Grubhub made significant improvements, bolstered by its partnership with Amazon Prime.
  • Uber's ride-hailing app is outperforming its rival, Lyft from a volume and demand perspective. Uber commands nearly 9/10 mentions from consumers utilizing a ride-hailing service. In addition, Uber's monthly U.S. app downloads increased by +7% YoY in the period being reported (compared to -25% vs. the same quarter a year ago).
  • Consumer macro trends confirm that ride-hailing app demand is rising, driven higher by consumers resuming work travel and those seeking entertainment transportation.

Airbnb (ABNB)

  • Consumer mentions of booking or staying in an Airbnb have risen by +28% YoY, nearly exactly in line with market expectations of revenue growth for the company. However, app usage mentions show growth just below the expected bar.
  • Airbnb sentiment has been dinged slightly (-3% YoY) following meme-worthy mentions from consumers calling out the company’s unexpected fees and cleaning policies. This is a slight degradation vs. levels recorded a few weeks ago.
  • Memes aside, travel trends remain strong. International travel mentions have increased by +62% YoY and taking a trip mentions have increased by +26% in the same time frame. These trends could be a bright spot in Airbnb’s report.

Roku (ROKU)

  • ROKU shares are trading -70% lower YTD following a series of slowdowns in revenue growth. Company guidance called for +3% growth in Q3, down from the +18% growth in Q2 and +28% YoY growth in Q1.
  • A major pullback in advertising spend reported by digital peers like GOOGL and META will likely serve as a near-term headwind for ROKU. But long-term, digital connected-TV ad spend still has plenty of room for growth. Connected-TV ad spend is expected to reach $27.5 billion by 2025, which is only a fraction of linear (traditional) ad spend, already in the $70 billion range.
  • Roku’s free (advertising supported) Roku Channel is gaining steam with consumers, with viewership mentions trending +68% higher YoY.
  • However, its hardware is losing its competitive advantage. Consumer mentions of purchasing a connected TV device show recent momentum for ROKU peers…this could be a warning sign for consumer loyalty. We’re officially neutral heading into this report and will be listening closely for active user counts.

DoorDash (DASH)

  • DoorDash demand growth (including usage and download mentions) is slumping, currently flat YoY. While the company does command market share, the entire food-delivery segment is displaying comparative weakness as consumer behaviors shift.
  • Macro trend data reveals that more consumers are opting to visit restaurants instead. Food delivery mentions have dropped -6% lower YoY. Meanwhile, consumer mentions of visiting a restaurant have increased by +24% YoY.
  • Long-term, keep an eye out for GrubHub demand. The company’s partnership with Amazon triggered an initial platform switch for many consumers, which could ding DoorDash’s market dominance.

Coinbase (COIN)

  • Coinbase demand has bottomed out, currently registering -69% lower YoY as consumer mentions of buying and selling crypto falls on a cumulative scale. Coinbase demand in 22Q3 was the lowest recorded since 2020. Noting LikeFolio data is most reflective of retail trading volume, which comprises ~21% of total volume.
  • Last quarter COIN shares dropped following earnings that featured a $1 billion loss attributed to lower cryptocurrency prices and institutional clients leaving the crypto market.
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum comprise more than 50% of Coinbase's total trading volume (and thus transaction revenue). LikeFolio data reveals consumer mentions of investing in or trading Bitcoin and Ethereum remain significantly lower on a YoY basis, a sign of continued weakness for the company.
  • Long-term, it does look like Coinbase is a preferred platform for crypto users. We expanded on the implications of any renewed interest in cryptocurrency (especially on the institutional side) a few weeks ago.
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