5 Stocks to Watch This Week (ZM, DASH, PENN, DRI, ETSY)
December 12, 2022
Here are some names that the LikeFolio team is keeping an eye on this trading week:
Zoom Video Communications (ZM)
Last quarter ZM posted $1.1 billion in revenue -- its 6th consecutive quarter of a billion+ sales – but also evidence of a continued slowdown in growth since its pandemic heyday.
The company warned of “heightened deal scrutiny for new business”. While it doesn’t appear rivals are winning over current customers, agreements are taking longer to close.
ZM also noted a decrease in subscribers from individual users – like consumers who previously used the platform to chat with grandma. Its online business declined by -9% YoY. LikeFolio’s unique audience data from the U.S. exactly mirrors this trend reported by the company.
Across the board, Zoom Purchase Intent continues to normalize in the current quarter, currently pacing for a -38% YoY decline. This would be an acceleration vs. last quarter, where demand (usage and new signup mentions) slipped by -32% YoY.
Earnings aren’t expected for ZM until February of next year, but an early look doesn’t support a bet to the upside just yet. Our signal is officially neutral (+1) for now.
Late last month DoorDash announced nationwide layoffs impacting 6% of its workforce – or 1,250 employees. The company is reconciling a hiring push in response to Covid demand that if left unchecked would keep operating expenses growing at a faster rate than revenue.
DoorDash finds itself in a precarious position – the more orders that are placed, the wider its net losses. Last quarter, DoorDash reported more deliveries than expected (+27% higher YoY). However, it also reported a net loss of 77 cents per share, wider vs. a loss of 30 cents per share in the same quarter a year ago.
DASH shares surged +14% following the third quarter report due to better-than-expected sales and total orders. However, the stock remains more than 60% below levels recorded a year ago.
Near-term, food delivery is losing momentum compared to other food procurement options, including going to eat at a restaurant and even ordering groceries to cook at home. Food delivery mentions have slipped by -6% YoY, while grocery delivery has slipped by just -3%, and going to a restaurant mentions have actually increased by +20% YoY.
DoorDash remains the dominant player in the food-delivery space, commanding 66% of food delivery mentions. (Uber Eats trailing in a not-so-close second place with just over 20% of mentions). However, an overall loss of trend momentum has us sidelined on the company for now. It still has much to prove when it comes to profitability.
Penn National Gaming (PENN)
Penn National continues to trail “betting” peers FanDuel and DraftKings due to underperformance in sports betting. We hit on this divergence in performance a few weeks ago.
Last quarter, PENN posted revenue of $1.63 billion, +7.5% YoY. The company continues to prioritize its omnichannel execution, integrated media, and growth in its younger audience.
PENN could benefit from macro-related tailwinds as consumers continue to seek experiences, even in an inflationary environment. Consumer mentions of visiting a casino continue to climb, rising +20% YoY this winter.
In addition, its Barstool media brand continues to attract consumer attention. Barstool sports mentions are currently pacing at all-time highs. A return in advertising spend would serve as an opportunity for growth in this segment.
For now, LikeFolio’s earnings signal is Neutral, at -14. We’ll continue to monitor to see if the company can harness macro trend momentum ahead of its next report.
Darden’s wide portfolio of restaurants is boosting its resiliency. The company has a restaurant catering to vast income groups, so it can continue to benefit from high-earning continued spending on experiences and offer low-income consumers a treat in the face of economic headwinds.
Demand for Olive Garden is rising, driven by increased marketing efforts. Its “Never Ending Pasta Pass”continues to be a consumer favorite.In addition, a TikTok challenge is at play, with consumers posting videos to the app showing how many bowls of pasta they can finish. Consumer Purchase Intent mentions for Olive Garden have increased +43% QoQ and +36% YoY.
Comprehensive DRI demand remains higher than a year ago. Consumer mentions of going to eat at a Darden restaurant have increased +9% QoQ and +4% YoY. Shifting consumer behaviors could benefit sit-down restaurants this season: mentions of going to eat at a restaurant are up +20% YoY.
Darden reports on Friday December 16 before market open.
Etsy’s stock price fell -9% last week as investors grew increasingly uncertain about the company’s growth prospects. LikeFolio data suggests that concern is warranted.Overall mentions of the company are dropping, currently registering -11% lower YoY.
All brands under ETSY’s umbrella are seeing a slowdown in demand. Depop’s Purchase Intent mentions have decreased -19 QoQ and -15% YoY. In addition, Reverb PI mentions are down -29% QoQ and -22% YoY.
While it’s too early to tell if the Holiday season will reverse this downturn in demand for Etsy as a whole, we’re monitoring consumer shopping habits closely. Cyber week was notably slower for the hand-made gift leader, dinged as many consumers opted to shop local, and in person instead.
** ANNOUNCED TODAY: Thoma Bravo plans to buy Coupa Software (COUP) for $6.15 billion ahead of COUP's report today after the market close. As a result, there is no earnings trade on COUP. **