5 Stocks to Watch This Week (ZM, DASH, PENN, DRI, ETSY)

December 12, 2022

Here are some names that the LikeFolio team is keeping an eye on this trading week:

Zoom Video Communications (ZM)

  • Last quarter ZM posted $1.1 billion in revenue -- its 6th consecutive quarter of a billion+ sales – but also evidence of a continued slowdown in growth since its pandemic heyday.
  • The company warned of “heightened deal scrutiny for new business”. While it doesn’t appear rivals are winning over current customers, agreements are taking longer to close.
  • ZM also noted a decrease in subscribers from individual users – like consumers who previously used the platform to chat with grandma. Its online business declined by -9% YoY. LikeFolio’s unique audience data from the U.S. exactly mirrors this trend reported by the company.
  • Across the board, Zoom Purchase Intent continues to normalize in the current quarter, currently pacing for a -38% YoY decline. This would be an acceleration vs. last quarter, where demand (usage and new signup mentions) slipped by -32% YoY.
  • Earnings aren’t expected for ZM until February of next year, but an early look doesn’t support a bet to the upside just yet. Our signal is officially neutral (+1) for now.

DoorDash (DASH)

  • Late last month DoorDash announced nationwide layoffs impacting 6% of its workforce – or 1,250 employees. The company is reconciling a hiring push in response to Covid demand that if left unchecked would keep operating expenses growing at a faster rate than revenue.
  • DoorDash finds itself in a precarious position – the more orders that are placed, the wider its net losses. Last quarter, DoorDash reported more deliveries than expected (+27% higher YoY). However, it also reported a net loss of 77 cents per share, wider vs. a loss of 30 cents per share in the same quarter a year ago.
  • DASH shares surged +14% following the third quarter report due to better-than-expected sales and total orders. However, the stock remains more than 60% below levels recorded a year ago.
  • Near-term, food delivery is losing momentum compared to other food procurement options, including going to eat at a restaurant and even ordering groceries to cook at home. Food delivery mentions have slipped by -6% YoY, while grocery delivery has slipped by just -3%, and going to a restaurant mentions have actually increased by +20% YoY.
  • DoorDash remains the dominant player in the food-delivery space, commanding 66% of food delivery mentions. (Uber Eats trailing in a not-so-close second place with just over 20% of mentions). However, an overall loss of trend momentum has us sidelined on the company for now. It still has much to prove when it comes to profitability.

Penn National Gaming (PENN)

  • Penn National continues to trail “betting” peers FanDuel and DraftKings due to underperformance in sports betting. We hit on this divergence in performance a few weeks ago.
  • Last quarter, PENN posted revenue of $1.63 billion, +7.5% YoY. The company continues to prioritize its omnichannel execution, integrated media, and growth in its younger audience.
  • PENN could benefit from macro-related tailwinds as consumers continue to seek experiences, even in an inflationary environment. Consumer mentions of visiting a casino continue to climb, rising +20% YoY this winter.
  • In addition, its Barstool media brand continues to attract consumer attention. Barstool sports mentions are currently pacing at all-time highs. A return in advertising spend would serve as an opportunity for growth in this segment.
  • For now, LikeFolio’s earnings signal is Neutral, at -14. We’ll continue to monitor to see if the company can harness macro trend momentum ahead of its next report.

Darden (DRI)

  • Darden’s wide portfolio of restaurants is boosting its resiliency. The company has a restaurant catering to vast income groups, so it can continue to benefit from high-earning continued spending on experiences and offer low-income consumers a treat in the face of economic headwinds.
  • Demand for Olive Garden is rising, driven by increased marketing efforts. Its “Never Ending Pasta Pass”continues to be a consumer favorite.In addition, a TikTok challenge is at play, with consumers posting videos to the app showing how many bowls of pasta they can finish. Consumer Purchase Intent mentions for Olive Garden have increased +43% QoQ and +36% YoY.
  • Comprehensive DRI demand remains higher than a year ago. Consumer mentions of going to eat at a Darden restaurant have increased +9% QoQ and +4% YoY. Shifting consumer behaviors could benefit sit-down restaurants this season: mentions of going to eat at a restaurant are up +20% YoY.
  • Darden reports on Friday December 16 before market open. 

Etsy (ETSY)

  • Etsy’s stock price fell -9% last week as investors grew increasingly uncertain about the company’s growth prospects. LikeFolio data suggests that concern is warranted.Overall mentions of the company are dropping, currently registering -11% lower YoY.
  • All brands under ETSY’s umbrella are seeing a slowdown in demand. Depop’s Purchase Intent mentions have decreased -19 QoQ and -15% YoY. In addition, Reverb PI mentions are down -29% QoQ and -22% YoY.
  • While it’s too early to tell if the Holiday season will reverse this downturn in demand for Etsy as a whole, we’re monitoring consumer shopping habits closely. Cyber week was notably slower for the hand-made gift leader, dinged as many consumers opted to shop local, and in person instead.

** ANNOUNCED TODAY: Thoma Bravo plans to buy Coupa Software (COUP) for $6.15 billion ahead of COUP's report today after the market close. As a result, there is no earnings trade on COUP. **

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