AAPL DECLINE CONFIRMS: LikeFolio months ahead of Wall Street analysts

December 18, 2018

We hate to say I told you so…but WE TOLD YOU SO.  We screamed it from the rooftop the day after Apple’s KeynoteIN SEPTEMBER 2018 - when $AAPL was sitting pretty at $226.

Nearly 3 months and more than -30% in stock value later, researchers confirmed what LikeFolio already knew: iPhone purchase intent is at a five-year low.

There it is...

If you WAITED until now to believe Apple’s new lineup had a demand problem, you’re showing up ~3 months late and $51 short to the party.

HOW did LikeFolio nail it when the rest of Wall Street was so very very wrong?

We use social media data to analyze consumer spending trends on Main Street, before they become news on Wall Street.

The Apple Keynote is a monumental, annual event where new products and services are released. We know this is a key indicator of company success for the upcoming year. It is extremely POWERFUL to measure consumer reactions to this event.

Here are some questions we seek to answer, using our proprietary data and analysis:

Are consumers planning to buy a new iPhone this year?

Not comparatively –  the 2018 Keynote reported dreary Purchase Intent levels.

The graph above demonstrates how we immediately knew consumer purchase intent was comparatively low.  Significantly fewer consumers planned to purchase a new iPhone this year than the previous two years.

What is preventing consumers from buying new iPhones? 

Price & Value.

After identifying 10,000+ sample tweets containing an “iPhone” keyword and negative sentiment indicator, tweets containing a purchasing obstacle were isolated.

Analysis confirmed the main pain point for consumers and the new iPhone lineup was price -- followed by size and performance, battery life, and picture quality respectively.

Which model is most popular among those who do buy?

While the iPhone XS Max received the highest volume of purchase intent buzz the day of the Keynote, trend tracking revealed a shift in purchase intent behavior.

Purchase intent mentions captured the week following Thanksgiving during holiday shopping bonanza showed the iPhone XR taking the lead.

Apple’s own product marketing team released data mirroring LikeFolio analysis.

Are any Apple products performing well?

Follow-up research conducted the week after Thanksgiving revealed that purchase intent mentions for the Apple Watch had increased year over year, while the same could not be said for the iPhones

The Bottom Line

LikeFolio's insights into consumer behavior were the first, and most accurate, to predict how Apple's new product line would perform.

This happens a lot.

That's why we are able to produce such accurate (and profitable) Earnings Predictions and Opportunity Alerts for our members.

In fact, here's the BEARISH $AAPL OPPORTUNITY ALERT we sent to members immediately following the Apple Keynote, right before the stock fell by 30%.

Shouldn't you have LikeFolio Data on your side?

Want deeper insights? Get Free Access to The Vault.

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About LikeFolio

LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.
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