$AAPL hot take -- Holiday Edition

December 23, 2024

The day before Christmas Eve is likely the second best day of the year to see where Santa's favorite "tech" stock is headed over the next 6 months.

We're talking about AAPL of course.

The holiday season is shaping up nicely for Apple, despite negative headlines around Apple's initial phone release.

Lucky for LikeFolio Investors, we aren't listening to media headlines. We are listening to consumers.

And our Keynote Hot Take is playing out exactly as we expected...

AAPL shares are trading at all-time highs, up +32% YTD.

The data doesn't lie!

And here's what the data is telling us right now...

  • iPad demand is ticking up ahead of a 2025 refresh -- the company is planning an update to the standard iPad (first since Oct. 2022) early this spring at an Apple event in March or April. The big ticket item this holiday season is the iPad mini, released this fall with pricing starting just under $500. Apple Pencil Pro is a popular-mentioned add on, sensing a user's squeeze to change tools, line weights, and colors intuitively.
  • Airpods and iPhone are having an equally strong early Christmas season -- Airpods are proving to be a hot gift and mentions show signs of consumers upgrading their phones
  • Airpods price point is attractive, starting at $129. Consumers emotional over hearing aid feature. Mentions also show high traction for the retro-looking Max headphones with a heftier price tag: $549. 
  • New Macbook pro with M4 getting some traction -- features include Apple Intelligence and a 24 hour battery life.
  • Apple TV device demand looks decent but isn't the story of the day.
  • In contrast, Apple Watch demand shows a major whiff in 2024 -- which, to be fair, Apple did not majorly update its Watch offerings this fall. Many consumers are buzzing about potential satellite text integration in its next Apple Watch Ultra revision. Buyers holding out for this upgrade.

All in all, looks like a nice Holiday season for Apple, with web visits at large popping higher ahead of Christmas gift giving: +6% YoY.

Apple's move the upside is justified by building consumer demand. We expect new all-time highs from here.

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