All of the headlines floating around online are bullish for tehe 2024 holiday travel season."The presidential election is a minor blip in otherwise robust holiday travel demand""US consumers are less concerned about holiday travel costs this year""Upbeat forecasts from Airbnb, Expedia, and Booking signal strong travel demand"

These are all from the last month!

The airlines themselves set a mixed bar during Q3 earnings:

• Delta (DAL) is leaning into high-spending flyers: "Looking forward, demand for travel on Delta remains healthy with continued preference for our premium offerings."
• United (UAL) is counting on revamped corporate travel: "We're clearly seeing an acceleration of return to office policies, which are driving corporate traffic revenue growth at an accelerated level and creating a great setup for 2025."
• Southwest (LUV) is still struggling with backend logistical hurdles, like labor disputes: "For the fourth quarter, we expect continued cost pressure driven primarily by new labor contracts and overstaffing with additional pressure from the lower capacity, including over 0.5 point of unexpected unit cost headwind from flight cancellations associated with Hurricane Milton."
• American (AAL) is in cleanup mode, firing its CEO after a flubbed sales strategy and reinstating its prior model: "We have taken aggressive action to reset our sales and distribution strategy and reengage the business travel community, which we’re confident will improve our revenue performance over time."

However, all airlines have seen double digit gains in share price over the last 3 months, with UAL drastically outperforming, up +124% and LUV bringing up the rear at +19%.

But at LikeFolio, our data suggests some caution may be warranted.

Are these 2 charts the canary in the travel coalmine?

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