It feels like a bullish bet on Starbucks at this point is really a bullish bet on Brian Niccol -- and historically speaking, that's a pretty good bet.

Niccol successfully turned around a flailing Chipotle, more than doubling the burrito chains annual sales in just a few years (reaching nearly $10 billion in 2023 vs. the $4.5 billion in 2017 before he took the lead).

The market has already bought into the turnaround story. SBUX shares are up ~30% since the new CEO announcement.

Does consumer data suggest room for optimism? It's a bit of a mixed bag.

On one hand, a newly revamped fall menu is likely to stoke consumer enthusiasm. SBUX released a slew of new beverages that are -- erm, very complicated -- but garnering positive reviews on social media.

Just listen to these names: Iced Apple Crisp Non-Dairy Cream Chai, Iced Apple Crisp Oatmilk Shaken Espresso, Iced Caramel Apple Cream Latte, Apple Crisp Oatmilk Macchiato

The company is really leaning into "Apple" it seems...and a very specific consumer base. (This could be good or bad.)

On the other and perhaps more important hand, competition is certainly coming.

Consumers prioritizing speed and convenience are increasingly turning to drive-thru specialists like Dutch Bros and Scooter's.

Look at digital growth from the new players. The chart looks like the kick off of a changing of the guard.

In contrast to Starbucks' hippy dippy drinks, Dutch Bros menu is a little easier to order for one -- a sweater weather chai, pumpkin pie frost, or a caramel pumpkin cold brew. BROS also features a line of protein coffee, and its infamous rebel energy drink.

This menu specialization is an area Brian Niccol will likely tackle at SBUX.

The seemingly endless customizations of a Starbucks beverages have hindered the company's prep speed and even app experience. So many buttons. So many pumps.

Starbucks itself calculated more than 170,000 possible drink combinations available, but outsiders say that's a serious underestimate.

These complicated orders are adding more stress on an already fragile Starbucks workforce -- and creating longer lines for consumers, with some reporting waits of half an hour or more.

This has opened the door for quick competitors, like Dutch Bros and Scooter's to capitalize.

Here's how we're playing BROS and SBUX...

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