Even though the Kentucky Derby is in the rear-view mirror, my time at the racetrack got me to thinking about long shots.
In the world of horse racing, one name that doesn't quite have the same recognition as Seabiscuit or Secretariat, but stands as a testament to unexpected success, is Mine That Bird.
This gelding's journey to victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby provides a valuable lesson in horse racing and the factors that can predict an unexpected champion.
Mine That Bird was a long shot in every sense of the word. Bred in Canada, he didn't have the pedigree of many of his competitors. His sire was Birdstone, who had won the Belmont Stakes, but his dam was a relatively unknown mare.
And Mine That Bird was small, standing only 15.2 hands high, noticeably undersized compared to the typical Thoroughbred. He was seen as a 50-1 long shot for the Derby, a rank outsider.
However, there were a few signs that hinted at his potential.
Firstly, he had demonstrated significant endurance and speed as a two-year-old, even if he hadn't maintained that performance level.
Secondly, he was paired with an experienced jockey, Calvin Borel, who had previously won the Kentucky Derby in 2007.
On the day of the Kentucky Derby, conditions were less than ideal: the track was a rained out, sloppy mess.
However, this was where Mine That Bird's smaller stature became an advantage. He was more agile in the sloppy conditions than some of the bigger horses, and Borel was able to guide him expertly through the pack.
In one of the most thrilling finishes in Derby history, Mine That Bird made a powerful move on the rail, pulling away from the field to win by 6¾ lengths, the largest margin in over 60 years. The horse that many had dismissed as an also-ran had become a Derby champion.
In hindsight, the signs were there.
Past performance as a juvenile, an experienced jockey, and a resilience that lent itself well to the adverse track conditions on race day. Mine That Bird's story reminds us that in horse racing, it's not always the obvious choice – or biggest horse – that comes out on top.
This same mindset can be applied to trading and investing.
Sometimes, the biggest wins in the stock market come in the form of smaller, lesser-known companies who are just beginning to show signs of explosive growth.
The signs we’re looking for?
- High levels of consumer happiness -- well above that of more established peers
- Explosive demand growth -- steeper than that of more established peers
Celsius, a “healthy” energy rocketing in popularity among fitness nuts, is one of those companies that fit this bill.
In fact, it’s checked our ‘winner’ box at least 3 times over the last 3 years.
It has yet to disappoint…
Check out the gains logged since each alert (and go back and read them for yourself if you’d like):
The common theme of each Bullish signal?
Celsius was outperforming peers in HAPPINESS and CONSUMER DEMAND.
So – is this horse out of gas?
Not necessarily. Let’s check the data…
Celsius has the strongest level of consumer demand growth vs. other, larger peers like Monster Energy.
All while maintaining the highest levels of consumer happiness.
Leading consumer data alongside positive distribution partnerships (hello, PepsiCo!) make us comfortable betting on this horse in the immediate future.
We’ll continue to provide updates as data progresses, and share other long-shot winners with members along the way.
P.S. If you’d like to learn more about membership options and how to take advantages of opportunities like this, reply to this email.