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Company Seasonality

November 24, 2018

Company seasonality means that the company's revenues naturally fluctuate based on the time of year.  

Canada Goose is a perfect example of company seasonality.  They make high-end coats and jackets designed for very cold weather.  Their product is naturally more relevant to consumers during a specific time of year (when it's really cold), and they're popular gift items during the holiday season.

We can quickly see this in the LikeFolio Research Dashboard reveals the seasonal pattern:

The LikeFolio Research Dashboard reveals the seasonality of Canada Goose's business.

The green line is a 90 day moving average of consumer purchase intent mentions, which show an extremely cyclical pattern tied to company seasonality. 

Purchase intent (PI) mentions drop to nearly zero in the summer months (when no one thinks about "extreme weather" coats, much less tweets about buying them), and rise dramatically through the late fall, rising to peak during the coldest days of winter. 

As winter wanes, and temperatures rise, PI mentions then drop back down at nearly the same rate they rose on the way up.  The seasonal cycle completes and restarts as PI mentions drop once again to near zero during the summer.

Keys to researching company seasonality

Now that we understand what company seasonality is, here are a few next steps we can follow to integrate it into our stock research process:

  1.  Understand just how seasonal a business really is.
  2.  Identify the trajectory and trend of the company's seasonal results.
  3.  Use early indicators as clues that allow you to project company seasonality during busy times of year.

At LikeFolio, we always take company seasonality into account when producing our famous Earnings Predictions and Opportunity Alerts.  

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LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.

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