United Parcel Service (UPS)

After two quarters of explosive demand growth, UPS Purchase Intent mentions are normalizing.

Consumer mentions of sending or receiving a package via UPS increased 7% YoY in 20Q4.

This is lower than the previous quarter growth rate of +50% YoY. Mentions in 21Q1 are currently exactly flat YoY.

Last quarter, UPS reported revenue growth of +16% YoY, noting a COVID shift in B2B and B2C activity: "While our commercial business remained under pressure due to the economic downturn, during the quarter, we began to optimize our network and captured share in SMB, or small and medium-sized businesses. As a result, we saw revenue per piece improved sequentially in the U.S."

From a consumer preference perspective, UPS maintains a significant edge vs. peer FedEx.

elivery speed is the main differentiator in sentiment, as consumers increasingly demand faster, free shipping.

Other factors to consider ahead of earnings:

• UPS is expected to play a major role in the global distribution of vaccines (an element that is unlikely to show up in social media mentions).
• UPS is divesting its Freight business.

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