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Dialing in on Dollar Tree - ($DLTR)

March 1, 2022

Dollar Tree is reporting Q42021 earnings results this Wednesday, March 2 before the bell and there might be some things to look out for. They’re a retail brand that owns both Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores and if you guessed what they do, you’re right.

However, they are facing headwinds from inflation, whether that is a positive or negative, the earnings this week should provide that answer.

The theme for almost any retailer, supplier and/or product right now is inflation. It’s affecting the cost of almost everything and that includes The Dollar Store and their popular $1 and below items.

They’ve raised the price to most items $0.25 cents, not a lot in dollar terms but on a percent basis, 25% is arguably a large jump by any standards.

Personally, I still think that $1.25 for most of those items is an absolute bargain but the marketplace might have an issue with it.

Consumer Happiness Mentions have dipped a bit to a 58% positive rating, the lowest in a few years.

Analysts seem to still like this name because BMO did just upgraded the stock Monday morning with an Outperform rating and a new price target at $170.

Revenue expectations for the call Wednesday are at $7.13 billion which is a +5.3% improvement from the prior quarter. EPS is expected to come in at $1.79/share which is a decline of -16% from the year prior.

The positive takeaway from these expectations could be that they beat on EPS and that it helps the stock since the street seems to be skeptical.

Family Dollar Issues

Now under the brand is the Family Dollar store brand as well. They’ve had some recent issues on their own accord that make things a bit worrisome for the Company as a whole.
First, the FDA announced a voluntary recall of certain items that were in some stores from January 2021 until currently (You can read the voluntary recall here).

404 stores were listed in the recall which was caused by a rat infestation at one of the Company's warehouses.

Negative Mentions on the Family Dollar Brand have been spiking as well.

Where to next? Despite these recent events and the price increase, the stock ($DLTR) has continued to make new all-time highs. The last earnings report saw the stock gap up nearly 10% the day after and while they are being affected by inflation issues, so are other retailers.

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