Election Winner? Stock Market Already Knows

October 23, 2024

Forget polls.

Want to see where the election outcome odds really stand?

Just follow the money.

Right now, Vegas and the stock market agree: President Trump holds a significant edge for victory in the final stretch of the 2024 election.

Polymarket betting odds show the rapidly widening gap in betting odds over the last month, increasingly favoring Trump at 64% vs. Harris at 35%.

The stock market is also pricing in a potential Trump victory, with key sectors already experiencing upward momentum based on expectations of a return to his first-term policies.

Here’s what investors should know…

Financial Stocks are Surging

Financial stocks, particularly large banks, are gaining as investors anticipate deregulation and a more business-friendly environment under a potential Trump administration. Stocks like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are already trending higher as investors expect reduced regulatory scrutiny and favorable tax policies.

The sector is positioned to benefit from relaxed oversight, enabling more mergers, faster approvals, and greater profitability for financial institutions.

[Conservative] Energy Sector is Beginning to Rally

Companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron should stand to benefit from a Trump victory as well as Trump policies favor domestic energy development.

But these traditional oil and gas players haven’t logged significant gains over the last month (opportunity may still exist here for investors).

Instead, consider the outsized bullish momentum in energy stocks that really would ONLY benefit under conservative leadership: we’re looking at you, coal.

Here are 2 more signs the market is betting on Trump...

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