About
Information is our nourishment. Say hello to the data gods.
Meet Our Team
Consumers speak. We listen, analyze, and dig deep. You win!
Learn More
Solutions
Get targeted insights into industry trends with our quarterly sector reports, so you can predict the future and stay a step ahead.
Learn More
Receive alerts and reports to power your fund management. Partner with our team of analysts to take your research to the next level.
Learn More
Plug our consumer-demand-data directly into your client-facing software, tools, and platform or work with us to create custom, high-value content your customers will love.
Learn More
Testing our data is like jumping in a time machine to compare market gains and losses against reliable and annotated historical data.
Learn More
Track specific tickers, receive alerts, and watch sector-specific trends. Drill down on individual stocks and see where consumer sentiment aligned with gains and losses in trading.
Learn More
Who We Serve
LikeFolio is your real-time focus group keeping you connected to consumers and giving you a critical edge over your competition.
Learn More
LikeFolio is your research secret weapon to sniff out game-changing shifts in the market before they happen.
Learn More
LikeFolio is source of quantitative data based upon real consumer insights to power your investment engine.
Learn More
LikeFolio is your content pipeline positioning your tool as an indispensable resource to your customers.
Learn More
LikeFolio has partnered with Tradesmith to build Derby City Insights and bring our powerful insights engine to private investors.
Learn More

iPhone Holiday Sales Off To A Slow Start

November 30, 2018

The day after the keynote address, our Consumer Purchase Intent Data was already telling us that Apple was going to have a very rough road ahead of it.  Here's the full report we issued, here's the coverage it got in financial media, and here is the BEARISH APPL OPPORTUNITY ALERT we sent to members before we revealed any of that publicly.

Since then, the stock has fallen big.  More importantly, we have new data to share.

Holiday Sales of iPhones

The new iPhones are an interesting mix.  There is the iPhone XR for around $750, and then a big price jump to $1000 and up for the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Plus.

So which one are consumers jumping on during the holiday season?  The cheapest one....

Purchase Intent Mentions for iPhone Models in the week since Thanksgiving 2018

That's not good for Apple.  It shows that consumers simply don't value the enhanced functionality of the more expensive models.

2018 Holiday Slowdown?

Black Friday kicks off the holiday shopping season, and is often very indicative of how the company will perform for the entire quarter.  For some companies with high company seasonality, it can make or break a full year (not true for Apple). 

In fact, we have used purchase intent data from Black Friday to predict stock movements many times.

So how is Apple doing so far this Holiday season?  To find out, we compared consumer purchase intent mentions for that one week period from 2017 to this year for both the iPhone and the Apple Watch:

Year over year comparison for the first week of the Holiday Shopping season shows disappointing results for iPhone sales.

As you can see from the chart above, the first week of the holiday shopping season has been a tough one for Apple. 

iPhone consumer purchase intent mentions are down 37% compared to 2017 levels, and among those 2018 buyers, more and more are opting for the cheaper models.

A silver lining comes from the Apple Watch, which is performing well with a solid 11% increase in purchase intent mentions.

Summary -- Apple's warning on iPhone sales was warranted.  According to LikeFolio data, the holiday season could come up significantly short of historical sales levels.  The watch is doing well, but at half the cost of an iPhone, it only amplifies the message that consumers are looking for ways to spend less money on Apple products this year.

--  LikeFolio uses data mined from social media to spot consumer trends on Main Street before they become news on Wall Street.  Memberships make this data and actionable insights available via Earnings Predictions, Opportunity Alerts, and access to the LikeFolio Research Dashboard.

Related Posts

Tastes Great, WAY Less Filling -- Hard Sparkling Is Dominating The Alcohol Industry

Drinker’s tastes and priorities are shifting in a major way. […]

Read More
Why Apple's Earnings Report Doesn't Matter

Last September we used Purchase Intent data to predict that […]

Read More
Roku Earnings: What LikeFolio Data Is Telling Us

Roku makes streaming devices that allow its customers to stream […]

Read More
1 2 3 15

Related Posts

KEEP YOUR COMPETITIVE EDGE

Get FREE insights in your inbox every week with the Daily Drop.

About LikeFolio

LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.

Partner Sites

©2022 LikeFolio. All Rights Reserved.
Privacy Policy
|
Terms of Use
LikeFolio userslaptop-phonepie-chartchart-barsselect