About
Information is our nourishment. Say hello to the data gods.
Meet Our Team
Consumers speak. We listen, analyze, and dig deep. You win!
Learn More
Solutions
Get targeted insights into industry trends with our quarterly sector reports, so you can predict the future and stay a step ahead.
Learn More
Receive alerts and reports to power your fund management. Partner with our team of analysts to take your research to the next level.
Learn More
Plug our consumer-demand-data directly into your client-facing software, tools, and platform or work with us to create custom, high-value content your customers will love.
Learn More
Testing our data is like jumping in a time machine to compare market gains and losses against reliable and annotated historical data.
Learn More
Track specific tickers, receive alerts, and watch sector-specific trends. Drill down on individual stocks and see where consumer sentiment aligned with gains and losses in trading.
Learn More
Who We Serve
LikeFolio is your real-time focus group keeping you connected to consumers and giving you a critical edge over your competition.
Learn More
LikeFolio is your research secret weapon to sniff out game-changing shifts in the market before they happen.
Learn More
LikeFolio is source of quantitative data based upon real consumer insights to power your investment engine.
Learn More
LikeFolio is your content pipeline positioning your tool as an indispensable resource to your customers.
Learn More
LikeFolio has partnered with Tradesmith to build Derby City Insights and bring our powerful insights engine to private investors.
Learn More

Is Crypto Entering The Slope Of Enlightenment?

“You know it's time
to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over.”

That was the thinking of Joe Kennedy in late 1928, after getting a tip to buy Hindenburg during a shoeshine.  Kennedy soon sold his entire stock portfolio and avoided one of the biggest stock market crashes in history.

The Greater Fool Theory states that it is possible to make money by buying securities, whether or not they are overvalued, by selling them for a profit at a later date. This is because there will always be someone (i.e. a bigger or greater fool) who is willing to pay a higher price.

But what happens when there is no “greater fool”, and all that is left are sellers?

You guessed it, a crash.

When Joe Kennedy saw a shoeshine boy giving stock tips, he knew that the market was likely to run out of Greater Fools soon.  And it turned out that he was right.

Understanding the
Hype Cycle

The “hype cycle”, a branded term by the research firm Gartner, provides us with a graphical representation of the introduction, maturity, and acceptance of new technologies.

As you can see, it is often the case that new technologies like cryptocurrencies will see a euphoric “gold rush” of inflated expectations, followed by a crash in interest.  In fact, this “trough of disillusionment” is usually accompanied by a dismissal of the technology (and even mockery of its proponents) by the general public.  Finally, technologies will begin to take hold with real-world applications during the slope of enlightenment, before becoming truly productive in the world.

Where is Cryptocurrrency In The
Hype Cycle?

To understand our position in the hype cycle now, it is instructive to look at LikeFolio’s data on each cryptocurrency.  Through their proprietary technology, the firm can give us some serious insights by showing us how many people are talking about using or buying the cryptocurrency in question.

For example, the following is a chart showing the amount of social-media chatter around bitcoin over time:

Notice a familiar shape?  A massive uptick in interest in 2018 (peaking as Bitcoin prices peaked near $20,000), followed by a fast a furious drop back down into what many consider to be the trough of disappointment.

But now things are starting to get interesting again, as conversations around buying and using Bitcoin are starting to grow out of the trough, which could be the beginning of the slope of enlightenment phase.

And it’s important to note that this view is not a look at the price of Bitcoin… this is a view of how many people are actually talking about interacting and using the technology itself – i.e. ADOPTION.

What's next for Crypto?

Between the LikeFolio consumer insights data above, and the recent price action in Bitcoin, it’s clear that the public’s interest in cryptocurrency is getting some wind back in its sails.

Additionally, it’s clear that we are nowhere near the late 2017 levels of expectations, which is likely a good thing in the long run because nothing can derail a new technology quite as abruptly as failing to live up to consumer (and investor!) expectations.

So we will continue to watch this space with great interest.  Looking for continued clues from the LikeFolio data around consumer adoption for confirmation that we are truly in the “Slope of Enlightenment”, which could last much longer, and produce much larger profits for investors than most people are expecting.

Related Posts

Consumers react to PayPal's Crypto announcement

PayPal (PYPL) Last week we touched on a huge crypto […]

Read More
PayPal, Square cashing in on crypto interest

PayPal (PYPL), Square (SQ) Consumer mentions of investing in cryptocurrency […]

Read More
Holy Mackerel, Bitcoin!

Square (SQ), Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Square is buzzing alongside other crypto-involved […]

Read More
1 2 3 26

Related Posts

KEEP YOUR COMPETITIVE EDGE

Get FREE insights in your inbox every week with the Daily Drop.

About LikeFolio

LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.

Partner Sites

©2022 LikeFolio. All Rights Reserved.
Privacy Policy
|
Terms of Use
LikeFolio userslaptop-phonepie-chartchart-barsselect