About
Information is our nourishment. Say hello to the data gods.
Meet Our Team
Consumers speak. We listen, analyze, and dig deep. You win!
Learn More
Solutions
Receive alerts and reports to power your fund management. Partner with our team of analysts to take your research to the next level.
Learn More
Plug our consumer-demand-data directly into your client-facing software, tools, and platform or work with us to create custom, high-value content your customers will love.
Learn More
Testing our data is like jumping in a time machine to compare market gains and losses against reliable and annotated historical data.
Learn More
Track specific tickers, receive alerts, and watch sector-specific trends. Drill down on individual stocks and see where consumer sentiment aligned with gains and losses in trading.
Learn More
Who We Serve
LikeFolio is your research secret weapon to sniff out game-changing shifts in the market before they happen.
Learn More
LikeFolio is source of quantitative data based upon real consumer insights to power your investment engine.
Learn More
LikeFolio is your content pipeline positioning your tool as an indispensable resource to your customers.
Learn More
LikeFolio has partnered with Tradesmith to build Derby City Insights and bring our powerful insights engine to private investors.
Learn More
Resources
Latest Resource
March 27, 2024
Is HD Overbought?

Last quarter Home Depot (HD) cleared a low bar, besting […]

Read More

Macy's Earnings: To play or not to play?

August 13, 2018

Macy's reports earnings on August 15th.  The stock has run from $17 to nearly $42 since late 2017.  Is there more in the tank, or is the stock ready for a breather?


To find out, let's dig into Likefolio Purchase Intent data for Macy's:

Macy's purchase intent volume is declining as the stock moves higher.

As you can see, purchase intent mentions for Macy's have been in decline over the past year (red arrow), while the stock has rallied over 120% (blue line).  

Normally we would view this as a divergence opportunity, but in this case we have several reasons for not being aggressive about playing Macy's into this report:

  • The 2nd quarter is probably the least important quarter for Macy's, which is an extremely cyclical business
  • Quite frankly, this is one of the companies on our coverage list that our data is the least predictive for.  We're more interested in investigating and fixing that than in trading it.
  • Michelle Meyer of BofA Merrill just put out a note that spending at department stores turned positive (YoY) for the first time since 2014, which is going to give retailers like Macy's a tailwind.

Putting our neck out there

If we absolutely positively HAD to guess what will happen with Macy's earnings report tonight, we would say the following:  Macy's revenue and sales either in-line or a slight beat, but with some acknowledgement of headwinds heading into the next quarter.  

If we had to play the stock, we'd be slightly bearish, only because expectations are so high for this name after being one of only a handful of retailers not to selloff after the prior quarter earnings reports.

But trading stocks isn't about swinging at every pitch.  It's about making money.  That's why Macy's won't be going out as an Opportunity Alert today to LikeFolio members.  There are plenty of better trades to be had, especially in the next couple of weeks of retail earnings reports.... and we'll be ready to make them!

You can watch our founder discuss Macy's on the TD Ameritrade Network.

Related Posts

LikeFolio Q2 Public Earnings Predictions Recap

IMPORTANT NOTE:  This is a recap of purely PUBLIC predictions.  […]

Read More
TAP EARNINGS PREDICTION: Has Coors Finally Hit The Bottom Of The Barrel?

Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP) stock is down over […]

Read More
Why Pre-Earnings Stock Movement MUST Be Considered On Earnings Trades

LikeFolio's Earnings Predictions are known for being accurate and actionable. […]

Read More
1 2 3 6

Related Posts

KEEP YOUR COMPETITIVE EDGE

Get FREE insights in your inbox every week with the Daily Drop.

About LikeFolio

LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.

Partner Sites

© 2024
 LikeFolio. All Rights Reserved.
Privacy Policy
|
Terms of Use
LikeFolio userslaptop-phonepie-chartselect