Monday Preview ($CAR, $FVRR, $SHAK, $FNKO, $CELH)

August 1, 2022

A big earnings week is underway!

Here are 5 names that LikeFolio is watching for this week.

Avis (CAR)

  • Last quarter, Avis Budget Group (CAR) reported a sizable revenue increase: +77% YoY and +27% vs. 2019.
  • Macro tailwinds have also pushed CAR’s earnings to a new all-time high. Rising demand for rental cars and favorable shifts in the used car marketplace resulted in a whopping +2272% YoY EPS gain in Q1’22.
  • Shares of CAR have benefited from the company’s recent outperformance, gaining nearly +450% in 2021 and maintaining a higher level in 2022.
  • Total Mentions for the car rental company show a slowdown in the current quarter, with Mention volume on pace for a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year decline in the period ended 9/30.
  • Key trends which helped push CAR shares above $500 last year are slowing. Consumer mentions of rental vehicles being unavailable or out of stock are trending -14% YoY on a 90-day moving average.
  • Avis Budget Group is set to report earnings results for Q2’22 today after the close, and Wall St. expects to see record-high EPS and revenue.

Fiverr (FVRR)

  • Remote work has become increasingly common in the wake of the pandemic. Mentions of working remotely are up +52% YoY and more than +200% above pre-COVID levels (90d MA).
  • This trend has been incredibly beneficial for freelancers — Mentions of hiring a freelancer are up +46% YoY and mentions of working as a freelancer are up +28% YoY.
  • Demand for companies that connect freelancers with potential employers is rising. Fiverr (FVRR) serves as a prime example, with company PI at an all-time high level: +32% YoY on a 90-day moving average.
  • Fiverr has secured double-digit revenue growth in every quarter since its 2019 IPO, with revenue up +27% YoY in the recently reported Q1’22.
  • Fiverr has also maintained profitability, posting positive EPS results on 7 of its past 8 quarterly earnings reports.
  • FVRR reports earnings later this week (Thursday before market). We’re hoping for a more positive reaction than that seen for rival Upwork (UPWK) last week.

Shake Shack (SHAK)

  • Shake Shack (SHAK) is a surprisingly high-growth name in the restaurant industry, with double-digit sales improvements in the past 4 quarters.
  • The impressive rate of growth has come at a high cost. SHAK posted positive EPS for 2 consecutive quarters in 2021, but since then, SHAK’s bottom line has deteriorated, with the company reporting a net loss in the past 3 quarters.
  • Consumer Demand for SHAK is showing weakness in the current quarter — After rallying higher at the start of 2022, PI Volume is on pace to decline -18% QoQ and -7% YoY in the quarter ending 9/28.
  • Shake Shack’s premium price point could become a detriment, as inflation causes consumers’ preferences to shift towards lower-cost alternatives.
  • Does SHAK have the pricing power? Shake Shack’s CEO noted a menu price increase of “6% to 7%” on the company’s latest earnings conference call. It remains to be seen if they can maintain their customer base while raising prices, like Chipotle (CMG).
  • SHAK reports earnings on Thursday morning before market.

Funko (FNKO)

  • Consumer Demand for Funko (FNKO) is holding at an extremely high level, trending +29% QoQ and +5% YoY in the current quarter (ending 9/30).
  • FNKO’s sales have surged higher with underlying Demand — Average revenue growth for the past 4 quarters: +73% YoY.
  • Funko’s recent success is backed by prevailing trends in consumer behavior. Consumer Mentions of buying toys/collectibles made for adults are near an all-time high level in Summer 2022, on pace to increase +26% YoY.
  • Last quarter, the LoungeFly brand boasted triple-digit year-over-year sales growth. Consumer Mentions of Loungefly have continued to rise since then, up +51% YoY on a 90-day moving average.
  • Strong bottom-line improvements have helped Funko’s stock outperform the market in recent months. FNKO reported EPS up +200% YoY on its most recent earnings release.
  • FNKO shares have gained approximately +45% YTD, nearing the historic ATH price.
  • The company is set to report earnings for the second quarter of 2022 after the bell on Thursday.
  • We’re positioning for another surprise to the upside, and a potential new ATH for shares on Friday.

Celsius Holdings (CELH)

  • CELH shares surged today (+12%) after PepsiCo (PEP) announced a $550 million investment in the energy drink brand.
  • The investment will give PEP an 8.5% stake in Celsius, and includes a distribution partnership that will help the smaller retailer expand into more independent stores and gas stations.
  • This investment comes as no surprise to LikeFolio followers. Celsius has been a LikeFolio favorite for years now – in fact, we recently highlighted ongoing strength at the end of July, noting the company was just getting started.
  • To understand the major health and wellness trends driving Celsius's successrevisit this weekend’s research desk spotlight.
  • Looking ahead, we’re remaining Bullish. Celsius continues to outperform peers and PepsiCo support could spark an acceleration in brand discovery.

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