New TSLA projections from ARK

June 13, 2024

ARK Invest recently conducted a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the range of possible outcomes for Tesla's share price.

No, we aren't talking about the famous district in Monaco, renowned for its luxury casinos and annual car rally. In this context, Monte Carlo refers to a statistical technique that uses random sampling and repeated simulations to predict the potential future values of Tesla's stock.

Probability Distribution: Each point on the curve represents a different potential share price outcome, reflecting the probabilities of various scenarios. The distribution shows how likely each outcome is.


  • No Autonomy Scenario ($350): This represents the worst-case scenario where Tesla's autonomous driving technology fails to materialize, leading to a significantly lower share price.
  • Bear Case ($2,000): This scenario assumes a more conservative growth and technology adoption, resulting in a lower but still substantial share price.
  • Expected Value ($2,600): The average outcome of all the simulations, representing the most likely share price based on current data and assumptions.
  • Bull Case ($3,100): This optimistic scenario assumes aggressive growth and successful technology implementation, leading to a higher share price.
  • Upper Range ($7,000): The extreme upper end of the distribution, representing a highly successful outcome far above the expected value.

Visual Interpretation: The curve's width and shape highlight the uncertainty and variability in the predictions. The wider the distribution, the greater the uncertainty about the future share price.

Most importantly, this showcases just how significant the successful rollout of autonmous driving is for TSLA in ARK's mind and sheer magnitude of growth potential.

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