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Shipping Wars: UPS and FedEx are Neck and Neck

September 15, 2021

Shipping Wars: UPS and FedEx are Neck and Neck

When it comes to delivery, consumers are greedier than ever.

Not only is Same-Day delivery the top growing trend shift in the last 2 years, but it's the only one still growing on top of 2020 levels.

Wow.

These elevated consumer expectations have resulted in lower sentiment ratings for both UPS and FDX, though FedEx has been more severely impacted in consumer-facing activity.

The severity of FedEx's sentiment drop is partially due to higher levels of demand growth, comparatively. Check our Purchase Intent normalization for FedEx vs. UPS on the PI line charts below.

FedEx demand remains higher vs. 2019:

And UPS demand is starting to dip below vs. 2019:

These demand levels should be viewed as a sign of momentum vs. a 1:1 package sending ratio. Ultimately, FedEx is gaining momentum with individual consumers but struggling with execution.

Last quarter, both companies traded lower after Earnings failed to impress investors.

Heading into FDX Earnings next week, LikeFolio's Earnings Signal is neck and neck for both companies. While UPS is outperforming when it comes to consumer happiness, FedEx consumer-facing demand mentions are holding at higher levels.

Long-term, we're keeping a close eye on both of these names as we approach the Holiday shopping season.

We're also watching Amazon's moves into the logistics space, even on behalf of outside customers. The company has struggled recently with 2-day delivery timelines, so it remains to be seen if execution will impact adoption rates.

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LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.

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