So… how did you two meet?  

December 8, 2022

It’s been over two decades since my last “first date”, so when it comes to understanding the dating app world --- well let’s just say I’m fully reliant on industry data and LikeFolio consumer insights.

But just because I’m not a consumer in a space doesn’t mean I can’t look for big profit opportunities in major trends, and online dating certainly fits the bill.

Here’s what we’re seeing at the moment.

Marriage is out

The marriage rate in the United States is absolutely plummeting.

The percentage of women who have never been married has increased significantly over the last 30 years, now topping 30% of the population for the first time ever.

The same phenomenon is occurring with men, which now have over 40% of their population in the “never married” section.

Online Dating is here to stay

LikeFolio trend analysis shows that dating app interest has grown over 10x in the past decade, and currently sits near all-time highs.

Most couples are meeting online, a dramatic shift from the days of friends, family, and school introductions.

Revenue to online dating companies has followed suit, with North American revenues set top 3 billion dollars a year in the next few years.
Companies to watch:

Tinder -- owned by Match (MTCH)

Yesterday’s news. Consumers are leaving the platform, tiring of “quick hit”, unlimited matching.

Bumble (BMBL)

“Ladies make the first move” on this app, easing the frustrations associated with other “swipe and hope” dating sites.

Website returning users are growing steadily, and highly correlated to revenue…

….but the company has missed EPS estimates in each of the past 4 quarters.

With expectations extremely low, Bumble may be setting up for a positive surprise. (Its score is just so high, and highly correlated. The slowdown in rev growth may not be as much as people expect...)

Hinge – also owned by Match (MTCH)

Quickly accelerating revenue per paying user, which could be critical to long-term profitability.

Hinge is the outperformer among the major dating apps, with higher consumer happiness and demand growth than peers.

For the record… I met my wife the old-fashioned way… after a few too many drinks in a bar full of young people.

I think the next generation could learn a few things about the limitations of algorithmic matching… sometimes it’s all in a glance…

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