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Target (TGT) is Beating Walmart (WMT)

July 15, 2021

Target (TGT) is Beating Walmart (WMT)

According to LikeFolio data, Target is Outperforming vs. Walmart. Why? A Couple of factors, but mainly execution.

Scale impacts execution, speed to the consumer.

Walmart has a much larger retail footprint vs. Target, with more than 10,500 retail units (including International, Sam's Club) vs. Target's 1,909. To give a more fair apples to apples comparison, Walmart operates ~4,700 stores in the U.S.

We see this impacting retention and growth levels for Walmart+.

Walmart+ Mention volume has dropped -59% YoY, -19% QoQ to ~2 mentions per day. Meanwhile, canceling Walmart+ has increased +14% in the last month vs. the prior month Shipt cancellation mentions actually fell -23% in the same time frame.

The company indicated capacity was the problem on its last earnings call: "The number one driver of selling memberships is the grocery, Supercenter, pickup and delivery. And as we said before, capacity is our issue there."

Target creates a better shopping experience for consumers.

Target Consumer Happiness is nearly 12 points higher vs. Walmart, at ~67% positive vs. 55% positive.

Target is out-executing in digital fulfillment, thanks in part to its early move and integration of Shipt.

The line chart is interesting because you can see a shift at the end of 2017, exactly when Target acquired Shipt. After that, Target moved in front of Walmart in growth and total mention volume.

Early in the game, Target indicated Shipt + store fulfillment were major cost-cutters, and this likely informed its current fulfillment strategy. When Target fulfilled an online order from in stores vs. distribution center, 40% of cost went away. When its customers used curbside or Shipt, 90% of cost went away. This is huge.

On it's last report, Target's CEO noted: "And for us, the distinction between a store sale and a digital sale is largely irrelevant. Because of our unique stores and hub model, more than three-quarters of our first-quarter digital sales were fulfilled by our stores. That means in total, more than 95% of Target's first-quarter sales were driven by our store assets, store inventory, and store team. This store-driven growth is translating long-standing bottom-line performance."

Both companies have recorded near-term normalization in overall Purchase Intent, but we're heading into a critical seasonal period: Back-to-School shopping. Both companies could be big winners...if we had to guess, Target will benefit most.

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