United Airlines (UAL) Has Already Tipped its Hand

UAL is expected to report its fifth consecutive loss in 21Q1 The company tipped its hand last week in an SEC filing, noting it expects revenue to decline 66% vs. 2019 in 21Q1. Shares fell 4% on the date of announce. LikeFolio data shows United Airline Purchase Intent mentions declined -72% in the quarter being reported vs. 2019, in-line with expectations and the prior report.

The company also noted an acceleration in customer demand for travel and new bookings, contributing to positive average daily core cash flow. Analysts are expecting this positive acceleration to continue...and my be disappointed if not. While UAL booking demand is stabilizing -- an improvement from prior quarters of sequential decline -- its recovery is lagging vs. peers: flat QoQ on a 30-day moving average vs. improvements for AAL and LUV.

UAL is banking on recovery: the company is training new pilots, bringing back its schedule (exceeded its pre-pandemic schedule to Latin America), and has upped its orders for Boeing 737 MAX jets. Listen for signs of continued recovery and accelerated bookings when the company reports 21Q1 earnings April 20 before market open.