Weight Watchers stock could be getting a little heavy

February 19, 2021

Over the years, LikeFolio has delivered a remarkable series of predictions for Weight Watchers (WW).

We maintained a bullish outlook while shares ran +900% higher in 2017-2018, and then promptly reversed our position in time to capture the -30% move lower in 2019.

Our secret?

Tracking Consumer Demand around New Years, when optimistic consumers get out their wallets to commit to their resolution to finally lose that extra belly weight.

Like many fitness-focused companies, Weight Watchers (now "WW") is extremely seasonal.

Because of Weight Watcher's subscription business model, its results during the New Year's Resolution Season of Q1 is a critical indicator of company performance for the rest of the year.

So, how have they done?   Well... not great.

Purchase Intent Mentions are showing significant weakness in this critical period, down 44% Year over Year.

Weight Watchers is scheduled to report Q4 earnings next week, and any indication of poor guidance for the upcoming year could lead to downward pressure on the share price.

But Weight Watchers isn't alone -- the entire diet industry could be in for a... well...diet.

Across the board, Consumers are showing less interest in dieting, with mentions of “Trying a New Diet” trending -25% lower YoY.

This negative trend could have ramifications for the entire weight-loss industry. 

We’ve already got our eye on Simply Good Foods (SMPL), but any branded diet products could experience near-term weakness as a result.

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