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5 Stocks to Watch This Week ($ADBE, $MODG, $BJ, $TSCO, $BBW)

September 19, 2022

Here are some key stats and data points on stocks we’re watching in this trading week:

Adobe (ADBE)
  • Last week Adobe announced plans to acquire Figma, a web-based design platform, for $20 billion.
  • Figma boasts a unique collaborative functionality and an easy-to-understand user interface that is increasingly appealing to consumers. Consumer mentions of subscribing to Figma have increased more than +300% YoY.
  • ADBE shares have plunged more than -20% since the announcement as investors grapple with the hefty price tag, the largest amount paid for a private software company.
  • LikeFolio data shows that while Adobe mention growth has cooled down from its pandemic spark, levels remain stable: +5% YoY.
  • The natural alignment between Figma’s capabilities and Adobe’s positioning in the design market suggests this pullback could present an opportunity for long-term investors if the transaction closes and Adobe can leverage the brand’s unique favorability among consumers.
Callaway (ELY) ➡️ Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp (MODG)
  • Callaway Golf is rebranding itself. The company that previously traded under the ticker symbol ELY is now officially Topgolf Callaway Brands and trades under the ticker symbol MODG.
  • This move highlights the rising significance of Topgolf in Callaway’s universe. Last year Topgolf comprised ~35% of the company’s revenue and was the main growth driver.
  • LikeFolio data shows that Topgolf demand growth is accelerating in 22Q3 (ends Sept. 30). Purchase Intent mentions in the quarter are on pace for +22% YoY growth, a noted improvement vs. levels recorded in 22Q2 (+5% YoY).
  • This strength in Callaway’s experience segment is contributing to the company’s current earnings score: slightly Bullish, at +31. We’ll be monitoring through the end of the quarter to confirm momentum.
BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ)
  • BJ’s Wholesale Club is continuing its fight to steal market share from bulk retail peers…successfully. Consumer mentions for shopping at BJ’s have increased +54% YoY while demand for larger peers Sam’s Club and Costco stall (or decline).
  • LikeFolio first featured BJ’s Wholesale as a winner in our July MegaTrends report: Retail Knockout. Shares have gained by +10% since then.
  • The wholesaler currently boasts one of the highest earnings scores in LikeFolio’s universe, at +62. This reinforces our Bullish outlook, especially as inflation rises and consumers seek out deals.
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
  • Tractor Supply was a major beneficiary of the “Urban Exodus” – a large reshuffling of consumers from urban centers to rural America.
  • Early data for 22Q3 suggests the company may be in for some trouble. Consumer demand in the current quarter which ends in less than a week reveals a massive pull-back in shopping activity: -23% YoY.
  • The same macro trends that were previously driving growth have dried up. Mentions of moving (-6% YoY) and buying a home (-9% YoY) have dropped alongside rising interest rates. In addition, mentions from consumers moving from an urban area to a rural area have dropped -15% QoQ.
  • While the company won’t report Q3 figures for another month, a cautious look may be warranted. 
Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW)
  • Build-A-Bear Workshop -- known for its customizable stuffed animals -- is losing steam. After generating serious consumer buzz growth since 2019, demand is showing signs of weakness. Purchase Intent mentions have dropped by -22% YoY.
  • The company benefitted from specialty branded plushes featuring lovable favorites like Baby Yoda and Harry Potter. But these special editions may be losing their luster.  LikeFolio hasn't recorded a new-product-drop-related spike in mention volume since Pokemon-related plushes were released in 2021.
  • LikeFolio's current earnings score for Build-A-Bear Workshop is Bearish: -62. BBW shares are trading -32% lower YTD, and data suggests this is justified.

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