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Can Target's (TGT) Omnichannel Prowess Power Shares Higher?

August 17, 2021

Can Target's (TGT) Omnichannel Prowess Power Shares Higher?

Today, Walmart posted earnings that beat estimates, led by strength in grocery and back-to-school spending. Shares are flat. We picked up on signs of consumer behavior normalization on Walmart's report:

  • Consumers aren't stockpiling amid Delta variant concerns: While mask buying was elevated, runs on supplies (like cleaning, etc.) were not observed.
  • The "take fewer trips, spend more" narrative is ending. Transactions increased +6% while average ticket size dropped a point.

Target is well-positioned to capitalize on a return to the store AND has the infrastructure to support continued digital adoption.

Target Happiness is 14 points higher vs. Walmart, and its Shipt brand bests the Target brand by 3 points. (Amazon Prime remains at the top of this list according to happiness data). Shipt is part of Target's same-day arsenal, also supported by order pickup and drive up services. Last quarter, Target's same-day services comprised more than half of Target's digital sales. This delivery trend continues to be the fastest-growing in the LikeFolio universe: +7% YoY on top of 2020's massive adoption surge.  LikeFolio data shows stickiness in these omnichannel fulfillment options in the current quarter: +20% vs. 2019.

Looking ahead, we've got our eye on two categories: Apparel and Beauty.

  • Back-to-School shopping mentions have increased +92% YoY vs. a muted 2020 season, and Target is a natural beneficiary from clothes to supplies. Generic "shopping for new clothes" mentions have risen +7% YoY.
  • Ulta at Target is now live online, and mini-stores within stores are opening too. Investors expect synergy here, and we'll be monitoring closely.

Target reports 21Q2 Earnings August 18 before the bell.

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LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.

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