Consumer shipping demand is normalizing...

February 1, 2021

United Parcel Service (UPS)

After two quarters of explosive demand growth, UPS Purchase Intent mentions are normalizing.

UPS quarterly bar chart - purchase intent

Consumer mentions of sending or receiving a package via UPS increased 7% YoY in 20Q4.

This is lower than the previous quarter growth rate of +50% YoY. Mentions in 21Q1 are currently exactly flat YoY.

Last quarter, UPS reported revenue growth of +16% YoY, noting a COVID shift in B2B and B2C activity: "While our commercial business remained under pressure due to the economic downturn, during the quarter, we began to optimize our network and captured share in SMB, or small and medium-sized businesses. As a result, we saw revenue per piece improved sequentially in the U.S."

From a consumer preference perspective, UPS maintains a significant edge vs. peer FedEx.

UPS vs. FedEx consumer sentiment

elivery speed is the main differentiator in sentiment, as consumers increasingly demand faster, free shipping.

Other factors to consider ahead of earnings:

Trend Watch: Silver

Last week, we saw coordinated buying efforts from retail investors on a unprecedented scale, and LF data shows that silver has become a target.
Mentions of investing in or purchasing silver are...

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