Looking Ahead, it's All About the Last Mile

Today on the TD Ameritrade Network we talked about the major shift in eCommerce logistics underway. But we've been onto this trend for 2 years now.

We first delivered a deep dive into this thematic in our August 2019 MegaTrends report, highlighting delivery services and technology winners and losers.

Our major takeaways: delivery is non-negotiable, speed is of the essence, and it better be free.

Since then, we've watched a global pandemic accelerate this already building consumer trend by an estimated 2 years, adding an additional $105 billion in eCommerce sales in 2020.

LikeFolio data highlights what areas are still most important to consumers:

Today, the top growing trends in fulfillment are Curbside Pickup (+1000% vs. 2019) and Same-Day Delivery (+59% vs. 2019). We couldn't even place curbside pickup on the chart above because the growth rate was so explosive it dwarfed the remaining trends.

What does this mean?

Looking ahead, expect to see major winners emerge in local logistics.

These winners could take multiple forms:

• Last-mile delivery services from UBER or DASH
• Retail Giants with Same-Day Fulfillment: TGT, WMT, HD, LOW
• Third-party platforms enabling small business eCommerce fulfillment: SHOP

A critical factor to monitor moving forward is Consumer Happiness.

Note on the chart below, FedEx is seriously lagging all other movers-of-things.

We'll be monitoring this space for opportunities as consumer preferences develop. Stay tuned...