At this point, we’ve nearly lost count of how many times we’ve played CROX to the upside.
We issued a Bullish alert most recently, in August 2022.
We’re currently up +61% on that Bullish call, with a max gain of +71% when the stock rallied ahead of its 4th quarter earnings release.
But it’s important to always be looking ahead.
After all, Crocs was once seen as a clunky “dad shoe,” not the hip staple even teens wanted to own.
Its brand perception obviously shifted.
At LikeFolio, we’re watching for shifts in brand perception in real-time by tracking consumer demand (Purchase Intent), Consumer Happiness levels, and major consumer macro trends.
By understanding these critical metrics, we can best predict which brand is likely to be the next Crocs – and get ahead of market rallies.
The chart below is an excellent tool to help visualize how different brands stack up because it displays:
- Which brands are most popular (size of the circle on the graph: larger circle = higher volume)
- Which brands are flying off the shelf (Purchase Intent Growth YoY, x-axis: further to the right = demand growth)
- Which brands are most loved (Consumer Happiness level, y-axis: higher the placement = more happy customers)
This chart is very telling.
- It’s obvious Crocs is still king.
The brand commands massive market share, as is evident by the size of its circle. To give scale, Crocs comprises 73% of demand mention volume for all the brands listed on the chart. But from a happiness and demand growth perspective, Crocs is starting to fall behind.
- Three brands are recording extremely high levels of demand growth, +80% YoY or higher.
These brands are actively stealing market share, and are the top brands to watch – the most likely contenders to become the next CROX.
Here’s who they are:
On Holding (ONON)
On Holding first caught our eye at the end of 2021, shortly after the company’s IPO.
It is best known for its proprietary “cloud” technology that translates to extreme comfort and performance for active consumers, or those embracing the athleisure lifestyle.
Demand in the first quarter is on pace to cap off the highest level in LikeFolio tracking history.
While this shoe falls on the high end of the consumer price range (with sneakers upward of +$150), it also benefits from a major consumer macro trend: increased preference for high-end apparel.
Hey Dude Shoes (CROX)
Yes, that’s right. A subsidiary of Crocs may be the next Crocs.
As I’ve always said, the best offense is a good defense.
Crocs’ acquisition of Hey Dude Shoes at the end of 2021 may prove to be the most critical move Crocs has made in order to stay relevant and ensure continued explosive growth.
Hey Dude Shoe demand is following the same trajectory as ONON: on pace for all-time highs in 23Q1.
Hey Dude Shoes is operating in a unique (but growing) space as many consumers return to the office: comfy but professional.
CROX is working through margin headwinds during the brand integration (inventory handling costs, unfavorable pre-acquisition freight contracts, etc.), but the brand still generated more than $275 million in operating income in the 4th quarter.
We expect this brand to be a significant driver of growth looking ahead and expect margin improvements alongside brand expansion.
HOKA shoes are beloved by runners but are also being adopted by hobbyists…if you will.
In the third quarter, HOKA delivered record revenue of $352 million, and the brand more than doubled its DTC business.
Based on current demand momentum in Q4, we expect HOKA to be a major driver of revenue growth in Q4 for DECK – also the owner of UGG, Teva, and Sanuk.
Bottom line: By harnessing social insights, it’s possible to understand – in real-time – how players in different segments stack and where momentum may be shifting.
Looking ahead, data suggests ONON, CROX, and DECK are well-positioned for continued growth and outperformance in footwear.