Tesla is STILL misunderstood.

Right now, it’s mainly seen as an automaker with a bit of energy in the mix. Fair enough, that’s its current business.

But Tesla is gearing up with two massive growth drivers—if either one succeeds, the stock could surge.

Our bet?

Tesla hits both targets.

It’s a binary play, but the potential reward is enormous.

Here’s a look at these two major levers: robotaxis and Optimus.

Robotaxi Impact

Tesla’s venture into autonomous ride-hailing has the potential to reshape its business and the market.

ARK Invest's projections illustrate this with a range of modeled share price outcomes for Tesla in 2029 based on different scenarios. The chart uses a Monte Carlo simulation to show how Tesla's valuation could change, factoring in varying degrees of robotaxi adoption and success.

According to ARK Invest, by 2029, robotaxis could account for nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings. In contrast, electric vehicles might contribute about a quarter of sales and roughly 10% of earnings due to the higher margin potential of robotaxis. The revenue potential is significant as Tesla’s fleet could generate income around the clock.

Tesla’s timeline for commercialization is aggressive but realistic.

ARK simulations include a 95% probability of a robotaxi rollout by 2026.

Political changes could smooth the path further. Favorable regulations may lead to streamlined national approvals, removing roadblocks. States like Texas and Arizona, which have fewer restrictions, provide ideal starting points for Tesla’s initial deployment.

Scalability

One major card Tesla holds in its back pocket is...

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