Celsius (CELH) Earnings Deep Dive

May 6, 2024

CELH's earnings last season were unexpectedly eventful. The company's quarterly results were prematurely published on its site hours before its scheduled release. After its official release and call, shares contracted a bit due to a slow down in the grandeur of its earnings beat (+13% beat vs. beats in the high 80's for each of the 3 prior quarters) but eventually reversed, closing the day +20% higher.

The company has elevated itself above MAJOR players in the energy drink space due to one distinct advantage: it induces thermogenesis, safely increasing your body temperature to give your metabolism a temporary boost. This means theoretically, drinking it before exercise or any cardio activity can enhance fat and calorie burning efficiency.

LikeFolio data shows continued growth, especially in the first quarter when many consumers were adopting New Year resolutions:

Mentions are up by +145% YoY and gaining steam (up +176% YoY on a tighter moving average).

Web visits are up by +75% YoY.

Consumer happiness levels are higher than all major peers, at 67% positive.

This tells us the company still has plenty of gas left in its tank.

What is driving growth?

One major accelerant is international expansion. International sales currently comprise around 4% of the company's revenue mix -- enormous opportunity here. We are just seeing mentions of Celsius product discovery pouring through from Canadian consumers, where sales began in mid-January. Sales will expand to the UK and Ireland in the current quarter, so we expect continued adoption moving forward.

Another major accelerant is shelf space. A strategic partnership with PepsiCo (PEP) has helped Celsius top 98% ACV (all commodities volume) in the US -- which is an industry way of saying it is reaching 98% of the available market. But Celsius wants more -- it is exploring partnerships, like ones that made its drinks available in 2,000 Jersey Mike's and 3,000 Dunkin' Donuts locations, and "non-tracked" outlets like vending, hospitals, corporate cafeterias and college campuses.

Bottom line...

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