Tip Sheet: We like these horses, and trends!

May 6, 2022

Consumer-reported Sports Betting activity is surging as states expand access.

According to the American Gaming Association, 30 states and the District of Columbia currently have “Live, Legal,” sports betting legislation.

2021 handle, which is the “total amount wagered by bettors regardless of a bet’s outcome or what happens to that money downstream,” doubled compared to 2020.

This is no surprise to LikeFolio members.

Because they’ve been tracking real-time sports betting mentions for years now.
Consumer mentions of betting on sporting events are pacing for +123% YoY growth.

This means that the current Spring quarter (ending June 1) is on track for the highest number of sports betting mentions we’ve ever recorded.

And platforms are taking advantage.

Take Flutter Entertainment…

Flutter owns various sports betting and gambling brands, including US-focused FanDuel, as well as others such as Sky Betting & Gaming, Sportsbet, Paddy Power, and Betfair.

It reported earnings this week with revenue in the UK and Ireland dropping…

But, in the U.S., it is thriving with over 1.3 million new customers joining its FanDuel business.

The company benefitted significantly from March Madness and the Super Bowl.

But now, another event – in a different sport – is at the forefront of consumer minds.

All Eyes On the Kentucky Derby

Even though LikeFolio is proudly located in Louisville, KY – we aren’t biased here.

According to LikeFolio insights, horse racing is gaining steam across the board.

Consumer mentions of betting on races are pacing +27% higher this year ahead of 'the most exciting 2 minutes in sports (The Kentucky Derby). QoQ they are at +41%.

And y’all. This is BEFORE the Kentucky Derby.

The "Run for the Roses" as it's otherwise known, is set to take place this Saturday, May 7th.

So we, of course, expect mentions to jump after the weekend.

In addition, the data for Churchill Downs (the racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company that owns the Churchill Downs complex), shows Mentions are trending +100% QoQ, +8% YoY.

It’s gearing up to be an enormous year for companies who have a dog in this hunt.

But for fun, I wanted to take LikeFolio’s proprietary consumer insights and apply them to one of my favorite past-times. Betting on horses.

While the official betting odds will be updated through race time, we wanted to know: what is the word on the street?

LikeFolio Releases Early Derby Favorites: Top Consumer BUZZ and Top Consumer BETS.

This may be one of the most unique applications of our consumer insights, but ‘tis the season.

At the time of research, the horse with the highest odds to win the Kentucky Derby was Zandon – only one letter off from my brother, Landon’s name.

While this is certainly a good omen, I’ve got some bad news for my brother.

Zandon is not the people’s choice.

According to our LikeFolio data, we have 2 horses rising to the top as consumer favorites. One horse leads in overall consumer buzz (mention volume). Another leads in consumer betting activity (purchase intent).

You can see the shakedown for the whole field below if you’re curious.

First: the horse generating the most total mention volume: Epicenter.

Second, the horse generating the most waging mentions: Messier.

Obviously this is not betting advice.

But it is a great illustration of the type of edge we provide investors every day.

We’re listening in real time when consumers talk about brands and products of publicly traded companies -- mentions.

And to take it a step further, we’re listening for when consumers take ACTION…i.e. spend money -- purchase intent.

I can’t wait to hit the track today. I’ll be armed with my usual edge…and probably some bourbon.

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LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.
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