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FuboTV may Surprise the Street

May 11, 2021

FuboTV may Surprise the Street

FuboTV is a sports-first streaming provider that serves as a complete cable replacement.  Consumer mentions of subscribing to or signing up for fuboTV streaming service have boomed in the last year.

User growth in 21Q1 increased +79% YoY, and this number has continued to improve. Mentions buzzed earlier this year when FUBO announced it was acquiring Vigtory, and plans to launch an online gaming app and Sportsbook in 2021.  The rationale: "In addition to our Sportsbook, free-to-play predictive games mark the beginning of Fubo's innovative gaming road map. We believe it will enhance the sports streaming experience while also providing a bridge between our video product and our Sportsbook. And we expect the integration of gaming with our expansive live sports coverage will create a flywheel that improves engagement and retention and, consequently, drives advertising revenue."

After reaching a post-Vigtory acquisition high of $52.40 in early February, shares have shed almost 70% in value, now trading below $17. This multi-month move to the downside has been attributed to overall market volatility alongside rotation out of tech-heavy growth names.  Heading into the 21Q1 earnings report, investors are paying close attention to user growth. FuboTV reported 547,880 subscribers at the end of 2020 (+73% YoY, and in-line with our Purchase Intent mentions). However, the company guided that the subscriber count would be 525,000 at the midpoint of Q1...so they expect to lose subscribers. This was attributed to a pull-forward effect. We ARE tracking cancellation mentions significantly higher than last year, but this may not offset the massive increase in Buzz we're recording for the name. Translation: there are some signs of churn...but it may not be as high as investors expect.

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