Netflix user growth stalls but existing users are sticking around

January 19, 2021

Netflix (NFLX)

Last quarter, Netflix shares fell more than 6% after missing EPS and adding fewer new subscribers than the Street expected (2.2 million vs. 3.57 million).

The company attributed this to a pull-forward effect in the 1st and 2nd quarter, due to consumers locked down at home.

In Q4, LikeFolio data recorded a similar pattern: growth is slowing down.

Consumer Purchase Intent mentions (mentions of subscribing to and streaming Netflix) are currently pacing -18% YoY.

Netflix purchase intent line chart

At the end of the day, NFLX user growth continues to slow (at least in English-speaking markets)...and the street knows it. Cancellation mention decline (-18% YoY) amid a price increase is a bright spot in the data.

Long-term we're watching to see if a new content cycle can improve growth metrics in the second half of the year.

Logitech (LOGI)

Last Friday we put out an earnings-focused bearish note for Logitech (LOGI). As our data predicted, the strong results reported last night were priced in; the stock is trading -3% lower today. LikeFolio consumer trend data shows that the underlying demand which fueled Logitech’s 21Q3 earnings beat is still present.  Moving forward, our outlook is...

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