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New content is keeping Disney Plus subscribers around

February 11, 2021

Disney+ (DIS)

The explosive consumer adoption of Disney Plus is undeniable. The platform boasted more than 86 million streaming subscribers in December 2020, just one year post-launch.

In fact, shares gained +6% immediately following its last earnings report -- despite a -$2.4 billion ding in Parks division operating income -- because losses weren't as great as expected and streaming adoption continued to soar.

Now the questions every investor wants answers to: when will consumers return to parks, and can Disney's streaming segment provide enough good news to satisfy the Street?

The first question is speculative. But LikeFolio data suggests Disney Plus is successfully retaining a large number of streamers -- a great indicator for churn.

disney plus renewal mentions

Subscription renewal mentions increased +46% in the past 90 days vs. prior quarter. The shift in trajectory is visible on the chart above.

Although Disney+ is in headlines today for politicized decisions, cancel campaigns rarely have longevity...remember Netflix's Cuties scandal? We are monitoring, but don't expect ramifications on this report.

What is the main driver of retention? Content. When we examined subscription renewal mentions plotted on the chart above, new content in the last quarter was the top reason for sticking around.

While it's impossible to know the extent of park operating losses and how effectively the company tightened its belt, data suggests Disney's streaming platform is continuing to execute beautifully.

Disney reports today (2/11) after the bell.


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LikeFolio analyzes social media data to accurately predict shifts in consumer behavior. We sell data and insights to professional investors, corporate research teams, and software providers.

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