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Spotify’s (SPOT) Winning Streak

November 22, 2023

We’ve been on the Spotify bandwagon for some time.

In fact, we’ve covered SPOT three times in the last month, providing a deep dive into what the company was doing best AND nailing Bullish earnings call.

SPOT shares soared on the back of its strong report.

What tipped us off?

  • Spotify's adoption of AI is transforming its services, with features like AI-powered voice translation for podcasts, a personalized AI DJ, innovative AI-generated audio ads, and AI narration for audiobooks. These initiatives are enhancing user engagement and positioning Spotify as a leader in AI-driven music and audio services, potentially boosting its market presence and stock value.
  • Spotify's strategic expansion into the audiobooks marketwith a vast library of 300,000 titles, diverging from traditional subscription models to a pay-as-you-go approach, represents a notable shift in its content strategy. This initiative, aligning with the rising popularity of audiobooks, positions Spotify as a significant competitor in the digital audio space and could influence its market presence and future financial performance.

Now, Spotify is trading at YTD highs.

Can it continue its run higher?

LikeFolio data says yes. Here’s why.

1. Spotify Mention Buzz is accelerating.

Mentions are trending +25% YoY on a 90-day Moving Average and +29% YoY on shorter, 30-day Moving Average. In fact, buzz is hovering near levels previously only achieved during its annual ‘Spotify Wrapped’ campaign. Impressive growth.

2. Spotify is beating Apple at its own game.

Spotify claims nearly 3 out of 4 streaming audio mentions, despite Apple being the perceived King of user experience. Spotify’s AI improvements and personalized playlists are proving too valuable for consumers to pass up.

3. Spotify is executing on all cylinders. Spotify reported a surprising third-quarter profit, its first in a year and a half, with a net gain of 65 million euros ($68.9 million), attributed to reduced marketing and personnel costs. This positive financial performance, buoyed by increased subscription prices and expansions into podcasts and audiobooks, led to a 10% jump in the company's stock value, underscoring a strong market response to Spotify's strategic shifts and cost-cutting measures.

We’ll be watching SPOT through the holiday season and particularly at the onset of the new year when consumers are most likely to drop un-used subscription.

But the data tells us Spotify is teetering into the consumer “must have” bucket. We’re holding our Bullish outlook for now.

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