Here are some names and markets that the LikeFolio team is keeping an eye on this shortened trading week.
Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS)
Dick's Sporting Goods buzz is trending slightly higher YoY, driven by sustained demand for outdoor and sports gear. Trends confirm a strong hunting season and elevated participation in youth sports, key demographics for DKS.
Expectations are high following a surprising third quarter report from Foot Locker last week, featuring better-than-expected revenue declines. The market responded positively to Foot Locker's effective inventory management, sending shares of FL (and peers like DKS and NKE) higher.
Foot traffic may prove to make or break retailers this holiday shopping season, as eCommerce trends flatten. Online shopping mentions remain unchanged YoY but have dropped by -6 points QoQ. DKS web traffic dropped in October, registering -11% lower YoY.
While the company does boast higher happiness levels vs. peers, the new bar may be too high for an earnings surprise. We're sidelined for this event.
Last week we featured YETI in-depth, showcasing rising competition in the drinkware space. We’re closely monitoring demand through the early holiday shopping season. Currently, purchase intent mentions are pacing for an -8% decline in the fourth quarter.
Strong DTC demand and international expansion bolstered revenue growth in the third quarter.
Keep an eye out for market share dilution in the drinkware category. It’s still early, and we will be following up after Black Friday/Cyber Monday results are in.
Tesla Sentiment is slipping alongside mass recall reports and questions related to Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter. This slide is the largest organic drop in company sentiment in 5 years. Tesla’s most recent recall impacting 312,000 vehicles is the company’s 19th recall this year.
Tesla is uniquely positioned to resolve recalls quickly and painlessly for consumers. About 99% of all Tesla recalls so far in 2022 have involved software, according to NHTSA data – meaning the company can push a fix via an over-the-air update.
TSLA continues to command the largest mindshare among consumers, holding nearly 60% of total electric vehicle purchase intent mentions. This mindshare has actually expanded by 9 points over the last 2 years.
Electric vehicle demand continues to soar as EVs prove to be competitively priced options vs. traditional automobiles, and a tempting solution to combat rising gas prices. Consumer mentions of purchasing an electric vehicle have risen by +96% YoY.
Tesla’s next earnings report isn’t expected until the middle of January. LikeFolio’s current earnings signal is neutral.
The Apple Watch and iPhone are driving consumer demand for Apple devices in the last quarter. The Apple Watch is poised to be a top gift for the holiday season. As demand has rocketed, sentiment for the watch lineup has increased by +4 points.
Apple shares have proven resilient, trading +4% higher over the last 6 months despite supply chain concerns related to production delays in China stemming from the country’s restrictive COVID policies. Production delays have pushed fulfillment timelines into early January for some buyers.
Long-term, more consumers are expressing intent to enter the Apple universe vs. leave it. Consumer mentions of switching to an iPhone have increased by +55% over the last 3 years. Consumer mentions of switching to an Android device have slipped by -30% in the same time frame.
Apple is leveraging its services segment by increasing the prices for its streaming services, including Apple Music, Apple TV+, and its bundle option, Apple One. We’ll be closely monitoring cancellation mentions to see if subscription-heavy consumers opt-out of price increases and cancel streaming memberships.
Markets are still trying to work through potential contagions from the cryptocurrency exchange FTX failure. FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection earlier this month, shedding $32 billion in value in a matter of days.
Leverage throughout the industry is still unwinding as the market tries to predict what shoe will be the next to drop.
On the consumer side, mentions of trading crypto are trending higher on a YoY and QoQ basis, while mentions of investing in crypto remain -5% below 2021 levels.