A month ago, Landon, Megan and I made some bold predictions.
We selected THREE companies we believed were poised for an earnings surprise. (You can rewatch the podcast here if you’re interested).
Now that we’re in the thick of things, it’s time for some due diligence.
How are those predictions playing out?
Win -- NFLX Bearish
We kicked off the season strong with a win on our NFLX bearish trade.
Data showed us that the company was losing momentum.
With new subs and viewership flipping into the negative, we worried about Netflix’s growth.
And we were right.
Netflix missed revenue estimates ($8.16 billion vs. $8.18 billion) and kicked the can down the road to crack down on U.S. password sharing after its international subscriber growth was impacted.
Shares traded as much as -10% lower following its report.
Win -- SBUX Bearish
Starbucks inched its way into our bearish scoring band just ahead of the earnings season.
Demand momentum (among English speakers) was dropping near the end of March/early April, and sentiment was falling at an even quicker pace.
Essentially, high prices were proving a tough pill to swallow for consumers, and this phenomenon was proving persistent.
Guidance could be in trouble.
And it was. Despite posting a strong report (led by recovery in China), the company reaffirmed its guidance on the lower end.
Shares fell ~6% after hours.
ONON Bullish – Reports Next Week
The final piece of our earnings prediction trifecta, On Holdings (ONON), is set to report Tuesday, May 16 after the bell.
A month ago our signal was Bullish. Does this Bullish prediction still ring true?
Demand growth has actually accelerated (+288%!) in the second quarter, which will cap off at the end of June.
This is a positive indicator for ONON’s forward-looking guidance.
Trend data suggests the high-end shoe maker continues to be bolstered by its luxury positioning and affluent audience.
We’re remaining Bullish ahead of earnings.
Members can watch out for more details on the Sunday Earnings Sheet.