Why UAL Could Soar

October 17, 2023

United Airlines is taking the skies by storm, and here's why you should pay attention:

Digital Tailwinds

LikeFolio's data is picking up some interesting signals. UAL is leading the digital pack with an 18% YoY growth in web visits.

And with Delta's loyalty program changes causing an uproar, many frequent flyers are ready to jump ship to United. The stock prices might be in a slump, but mention buzz is on the rise, creating a potential divergence opportunity worth keeping an eye on.

Proven Results

UAL’s past results support an upward trajectory, especially considering a lowered bar.

With its "United Next" plan, the airline is hitting record pretax earnings and EPS, thanks to aggressive pilot hiring, expanding Mid-Continent hubs, a beefed-up domestic fleet, and a significant push in international markets. The Pacific region, in particular, is a high-flyer with passenger revenues skyrocketing by 44%.

Sky-High Ambitions

United is spreading its wings further in the international arena. New nonstop services are popping up across the Pacific, connecting cities like Manila directly to San Francisco, and adding more flights to destinations like Taipei and Hong Kong.

On the home front, United is playing it smart, improving margins not by increasing the number of flights but by deploying larger aircraft. And let's not forget the 28 shiny new 737 MAX aircraft joining the family this quarter, along with the eagerly anticipated Airbus A321neo.

Consumers in the Clouds

The numbers speak for themselves. Record revenues in Q2, a thriving MileagePlus program, and robust premium leisure demand all point to a consumer base that's ready and eager to travel. Business travel revenue is holding steady too, matching 2019 levels.

Navigating Turbulence

It's not all smooth flying, though. Weather disruptions at Newark have thrown a wrench in the works, leading to a trim in capacity plans for the latter half of the year and a bump in CASM-ex guidance.

United isn't taking this lying down, though. It’s pushing for an FAA reauthorization bill to tackle infrastructure woes and is in talks with flight attendants after sealing a labor deal with pilots.

Why We’re Bullish on United

Resilient travel demand, success in attracting premium flyers, and aggressive international expansion have us bullish on United. And if Delta's recent earnings are anything to go by, United seems poised to not just meet but potentially exceed expectations.

Delta's Q3 saw a near 60% rise in profits, with strong summer travel demand, especially internationally. However, they faced backlash over changes to their frequent flyer program, a misstep United can learn from.

As we gear up for UAL's earnings, all signs point to a carrier that's not just weathering the storm but soaring above it. The question now is, how high can United fly?

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